A multi-scale, multi-model air quality forecasting system. (January 30, 2018)

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Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées

Published on Mar 21, 2018
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Lecture given on January 30, 2018 by Guy Brasseur, Professor - Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (Germany) as part of the Grands Séminaires de l'Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées. Several meteorological centers have extended the concept of "weather forecasting" to a broader concept of "environmental forecasting" with an important component that includes daily air quality forecasting at global, regional or local scales. These models include an assimilation procedure of spatial and in-situ observations, and a detailed formulation of surface exchanges (emissions and depositions). In collaboration with different partners, we have developed a multi-model analysis and forecasting system for air quality in different regions of the emerging world where high levels of air pollutants are reported. The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that each year, more than 3 million people die prematurely from poor air quality worldwide. The forecast system, which provides a set of quasi-operational daily forecasts based on 8 independent models, will be described, and some examples of specific results for Asia and in particular for eastern China will be discussed. Some ideas (MAP-AQ initiative) to extend this system to other regions of the world (Africa, South America) in cooperation with the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) will be presented.

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