Foreign debt: Héctor Giuliano on the agreement with the IMF
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Hector Giuliano, a foreign debt specialist, spoke with Canal Abierto about the agreement announced by the government with the IMF to refinance the debt of 57 billion dollars contracted by the Macri government in 2018. Giuliano explained that “according to the budget project that Guzmán sent to Congress this year, without counting the 20 billion that must be paid to the fund, the country has 52 billion dollars of capital due. But the country is not going to pay 1 cent of capital amortization, it plans to refinance every last cent. In addition, according to the 2022 budget that has not yet been approved, but that Guzmán said he was going to send again in March, the debt is expected to increase this year by another 28.5 billion dollars.” “Within this scheme, Argentina is already in a state of insolvency, what it needs is to clear up that insolvency. I say that the day there is a government that really fights for national interests, the first step has to be the whitewashing of fiscal insolvency. Argentina has neither liquidity nor solvency to be able to face this debt and the IMF has 44 debts,” the economist said. He added that “the alternative of a default exists. What's more, many countries in the world have been and are in default. It is known that this is not automatic; the IMF has a staggered period of negotiation penalties that can last up to two years while it is being defined.” “But Argentina adopted one of the worst negotiation strategies, which is to pay while negotiating. That does not work; in any public or private bankruptcy state, the debtor, when he cannot pay, suspends capital payments and interrupts the accrual of interest. But Argentina has done the same incredible policy with the vulture funds in 2020 and now with the IMF: it pays while negotiating. We have already paid about 7 billion and when March 22 arrives, the date scheduled for the agreement with the IMF, Argentina will have already paid 10 billion dollars in cash to the Fund. That means that the country would reach an agreement after having paid in cash almost a quarter of what the Fund disbursed,” warned the economist. And he assured that “the possibility of a default not only exists but is necessary. But not a default as an early repudiation of the debt, but as a whitewashing of the insolvency that immediately triggers the audit of the debt. And then we will see what happens when an audit is done, as is appropriate for the debt, because we cannot do an audit if we are not in default.” Follow us: www.canalabierto.com.ar www.facebook.com/CanalAbierto / canalabiertoar instagram.com/canalabierto WhatsApp: http://bit.ly/WhatsAppCanalAbierto #hectorgiuliano #affairwithelfmi #externaldebt
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