Mollematica: how do you use probability theory to find the mole?

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University of Twente / Universiteit Twente

Published on Jan 3, 2025
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How do you use probability theory to find the mole? In this episode, we investigate the effect of an exemption on the chance that someone is the mole, using Bayes' Theorem. 0:00 Introduction 0:41 Paradox: 1 in 4, or 1 in 6? 3:45 Bayes Theorem 4:16 How suspicious is Peggy? 7:51 How suspicious is Tygo? 10:49 What if you already have a suspect? 16:12 Summary of the calculations Excerpt from Who is the Mole Jubilee season 2020 episode 6 https://wieisdemol.avrotros.nl/ Why does Bayes' Theorem work? • Bayes theorem, the geometry of changi... Other fun applications of Bayes' Theorem • Bayesian Statistics with Hannah Fry

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