Public Policies/Alberto Calderón/ The end of the Chinese miracle: impact on natural resources
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The end of the Chinese miracle and its impact on Colombia's natural resources and exports In this talk on November 22, 2024, Anglo Gold Ashanti CEO Alberto Calderón addressed three topics. First, he explained the reasons for the decline in Chinese economic growth from an average of 10% in the past decades to 3% in the near future. He pointed out that this decline is due to the loss of population that will reach 600 million inhabitants by the end of this century, which represents a considerable drop if one takes into account that there are currently 1.4 billion people; the drastic reduction in investment and the drop in productivity. Second, Calderón referred to the projections for oil, coal and nickel prices and said that these prices will reach historically low levels from 2035 onwards due to the decarbonization of consumption in the world. Third, Calderón explained the consequences of these changes on Colombia's balance of payments. In particular, he noted that coal and nickel revenues will be wiped out and that oil exports will be reduced to 2 or 3 billion dollars from 2035, when in previous years they exceeded 15 billion dollars. He insisted on the need for Colombia to promote new sources of exports and that the country has good opportunities if it exploits gold and copper. ______________________ Alberto holds a PhD in economics, an MPhil in economics and an MA in economics from Yale University in the USA. He also holds a PhD in law and a degree in economics from the Universidad de los Andes in Colombia. He is currently CEO of Anglo Gold Ashanti, the third largest gold mining company in the world, with 30,000 employees and operations in Western Australia, Africa, South and North America. Previously, he was CEO of Orica, the largest mining explosives company in the world, and of BHP, the world's leading diversified mining company. In Colombia, he was CEO of the Cerrejón coal mine and of Ecopetrol. At a very young age, he held senior positions at the International Monetary Fund and in the Colombian government.
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