Shocked by Sankei-FNN survey: "LDP-Komeito likely to fall short of majority" Koichi Hagiud

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Published on Oct 22, 2024
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The results of a joint survey of the House of Representatives election conducted by Sankei Shimbun and FNN have been released. There is a possibility that the LDP and Komeito will lose their majority, and it seems inevitable that a coalition government will be formed. Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru has criticized the opposition parties, saying, "The situation is tough. What kind of government are the Japan Restoration Party and the Constitutional Democratic Party trying to create? I have no idea about foreign policy, national security, social security, or agricultural policies." In a sense, this is a case of pandering to left-wing newspapers such as the Asahi Shimbun, getting 44 people to stop voting in the proportional representation system, and putting in 12 non-official members, pandering to public opinion, and instead bringing the issue of "politics and money" into the spotlight. Even though Prime Minister Ishiba is the most left-wing LDP government, other LDP members will not nod their heads, so a coalition government with the Constitutional Democratic Party is unlikely, but a coalition government with the Democratic Party for the People and the Japan Restoration Party is possible. In that case, an ultra-C plan like that of Prime Minister Tamaki Yuichiro, which some people are whispering about, is possible. If Prime Minister Ishiba fails to achieve his goal of a "LDP-Komeito majority," criticism of the Prime Minister is expected to intensify, and there is a very high possibility that the wounded members of the former Abe faction will try to oust Ishiba. The Abe faction, which boasted a force of about 50 members in the House of Representatives, may be halved. In an interview with Sankei Shimbun reporter Issei Tanaka, a senior administration official said, "Ishiba will not be ousted," but he analyzed that there is a possibility that talk of replacing the Prime Minister will emerge before the Upper House election and Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election next summer. In the end, Ishiba was more concerned with maintaining his own power than with the state of the country, and by trying to weaken the power of the former Abe faction, he destroyed his own base, so I think that his administration is already at the end of its rope.

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