■ Host: Anchor Kim Young-soo, Anchor Lee Eun-sol ■ Guest: Lee In-cheol, Director of the Cham Eun Economic Research Institute The text below may differ from the actual broadcast content. Please check the broadcast for more accurate information. When quoting, please indicate [YTN News Wide]. [Anchor] With the unexpected variables of martial law and impeachment occurring on top of our already frozen economy, the economic situation is truly unstable. The exchange rate recently exceeded 1,400 won, stimulating prices again. Today, we will look into the economic repercussions of the domestic political unstable situation with Director Lee In-cheol of the Cham Eun Economic Research Institute. Welcome. Let’s start with talking about the exchange rate. The exchange rate recently exceeded 1,450 won. Is this the first time in 15 years since 2009? [Lee In-cheol] That’s right. It exceeded 1,450 won for two consecutive days. The reason we talked about the 1,400 won range before was because it went up to 1,960 won during the IMF foreign exchange crisis, so it was a very emergency situation. It also exceeded 1,400 won during the 2009 global financial crisis. It went up to 1,570 won at that time. This is the third time since then, and as you mentioned, it is the first time in 15 years and 9 months since March 2009 that it has exceeded 1,450 won based on the closing price. Why is the exchange rate so much... The value of the won, the value of money, is directly related to the economic fundamentals of a country. Why is the value of the won falling so much? There are complex reasons. Internally, the domestic demand slump is really becoming prolonged. Exports are slowing down, and political uncertainty due to martial law and impeachment is adding to it. Externally, G2, China's economy is in a recession, and the risk of Trump's second term protectionism is increasing, and to make matters worse, the US is cutting interest rates hawkishly, and they are talking about lowering interest rates and adjusting the pace of interest rates, citing inflation as the reason. Meanwhile, the Fed raised its economic growth forecast for next year and the US forecast. The US economy next year is 1.2%. The Bank of Korea says that our country may not even reach 1.9 next year. This is the second year in a row. The US economy is growing by 2.8% this year. It will be 2.1 next year. However, our country may fall even further behind 2.1 this year or 1.9 next year, so there is no means of restraint to defend the King Dollar in the world. The EU is the same. China's yuan is the same, and Japan's yen is the same. As a result, the dollar is showing strength alone. [Anchor] This is a situation where the unusually high exchange rate may continue until the domestic demand slump and political instability end. The US stock market has recently risen too much, and there are even bubble theories. What is your outlook for the US stock market? [Lee In-cheol] That's right. How much has the KOSPI fallen compared to the beginning of the year? It fell 9.5%. The KOSDAQ fell 23%. It has the lowest return rate even compared to Russia, which is at war. When I checked in the morning, the Nasdaq said it was rising, but the Dow Jones Industrial Average has been falling for 10 consecutive days, the longest since the 1970s. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 13% compared to the beginning of the year. And the Nasdaq Index is up 30%. Given this situation, the Korean stock market is actually Murphy's Law, like crying and getting slapped in the face. The US stock market is at an all-time high after waking up, so I expected it to bottom out, but even that seems to be shackled by political uncertainty. Last week, I actually expected it to rise a little if the impeachment bill was passed. It only rose one day last week. It fell four out of five days of stock trading. As things stand, KOSPI is under threat at 2400 and KOSDAQ has now broken through 670. Foreigners will probably remember... (omitted) ▶ Original article: https://www.ytn.co.kr/_ln/0102_202412... ▶ Report: https://mj.ytn.co.kr/mj/mj_write.php ▣ Subscribe to YTN YouTube channel: http://goo.gl/Ytb5SZ ⓒ YTN Unauthorized reproduction, redistribution, and use of AI data are prohibited.