Geir Hågen Karlsen (57) has many years as an officer in the Norwegian Armed Forces and as head teacher at the Norwegian Armed Forces College. Since 2024, he has held a position as communications advisor at Geelmuyden Kiese. Karlsen believes that the war in Ukraine has been more or less frozen since the autumn of 2022. Less than 1 percent of the territory has changed into Russian hands in recent months. And that at the cost of 1,500 Russian soldiers who are killed or seriously injured every day. The combination of trenches, minefields and barriers as well as lots of drones in the air makes advances enormously difficult and expensive. Despite the fact that rapid development is taking place when it comes to autonomous drone systems with the use of AI, Karlsen does not see any prospect of a breakthrough for any parties. War is ultimately decided by political will, says Karlsen. And despite the fact that the West possesses many times the industrial and economic capacity of Russia, we lack the will to mobilize. But they have that will in Russia. Karlsen believes that the West can maintain the current level of support for Ukraine for a long time, and that it is worth the investment and will be enough to ensure that Russia does not win outright. Given the standstill, Karlsen believes that it is possible to imagine a truce as something that Donald Trump could give the impetus for. Trump's unpredictability may provide an opportunity to turn the tables again from the stalemate that has arisen. Karlsen warns, however, that it can take quite a while to get it in place. In that case, what you can imagine is that you agree to withdraw heavy weapons systems from the front line and perhaps get a demilitarized zone. Formally, they will not agree on much more than military agreements. There will be no question of any recognition of the territories being ceded from Ukraine. Karlsen mentions East Germany and Korea as examples of practical solutions that did not find a de jure solution, and where you simply let time pass and see if new opportunities for solutions arise. Israel-Iran Karlsen believes Israel has proven technologically superior and has already defeated Iran's air defense. Netanyahu is tempted to try to knock out the key elements of Iran's nuclear weapons program. But these are deep in the ground and under thick layers of concrete. Karlsen believes that it will require American help, in the form of advanced missiles that can penetrate to take it out. Karlsen believes it is unclear how far Trump is willing to go to involve the United States. Again, there is talk of unpredictability. Trump is not fond of war, Karlsen believes, but at the same time he has stated in clear terms that Iran's nuclear weapons program is unacceptable. China Karlsen believes that China and the US have taken steps in the past year to establish channels to avert misunderstandings around Taiwan or the South China Sea. But the situation is tense. Nevertheless, Karlsen believes that neither party wants military conflict. China is an actor that wants stability, he believes. Both international and internal. They are struggling financially and do not want international events that endanger trade and supplies. He further believes that an invasion of Taiwan is extremely difficult for China and with no guarantee of success. A number of other interesting considerations emerge in this conversation. Geir Hågen Karlsen concludes by saying that he is relatively optimistic about the future. There is no excessive alarmism in his message and the geopolitical developments. Don't forget to like and follow iNews on YouTube. The podcast is also available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify and X.