Black swans – war, inflation and an energy policy mess

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ifo Institut

Published on Dec 20, 2022
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Watch the video without advertising in the ifo Media Library: https://www.ifo.de/node/73387 Further information at https://www.ifo.de/node/72639 Prof. em. Hans-Werner Sinn, former President of the ifo Institute, December 12, 2022 Black swans are events that were recently considered unthinkable. This definition includes the current galloping inflation, but also the veritable energy crisis, which requires a fundamental revision of the model of the green transformation of the economy. State crises due to escalating national debt, such as in Great Britain, are also coming into focus. The days of the free lunch, when states and their central banks could seemingly print any amount of money to overcome shortages without any harm, are over. 1:26 Five black swans 2:39 The impacts are getting closer 2:52 Pipelines Nordstream 1 Nordstream 2, Poland's "Baltic Pipeline" 3:55 Germans' confidence in the future (percent) 5:28 Part I: Stagflation 13:18 The main causes of stagflation 21:03 Is inflation the result of the war? 24:19 OPEC overreaction 30:00 Imported inflation due to the ECB's hesitation 35:00 Long-term interest rates are also rising, but are they rising enough? 40:31 New oil for the fire 52:23 Part II: The energy crisis 57:24 Putin's lesson: Green energy needs gas-fired power plants 1:04:13 An embarrassing topic for the green movement 1:14:24 Pumped storage for 21 TWh 1:15:56 Car batteries? 1:17:06 Large-scale batteries? 1:19:57 So only hydrogen would remain 1:26:56 Bans, bans, bans 1:29:54 Utopian goals 1:35:41 Is there a carbon budget, as the IPCC claims? 1:39:31 Problematic unilateralism 1:44:09 Nothing works without the climate club 1:53:11 The decline 1:58:22 My wish list ifo Institute – Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich eV

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