China's largest air show opened in Guangdong Province on the 12th. The highlight was the J-35A, a fifth-generation stealth fighter developed independently by China. The fighter is expected to be installed on China's third aircraft carrier, the Fujian, and is a weapon that symbolizes the remarkable "strengthening of air power" in the Chinese military in recent years. What position will the Trump administration take against China, which is steadily building up its military? American media has reported on the personnel changes of interest. The New York Times (11th) "President-elect Trump is expected to appoint Senator Marco Rubio as Secretary of State, three sources said. Trump may change his mind at the last minute, but it seems that he has settled on Rubio, who was also a candidate for vice president." The Secretary of State is the equivalent of the Minister of Foreign Affairs in Japan. Rubio's name, who has made some of the toughest statements, especially against China, was mentioned. Senator Rubio (US Senate Foreign Relations Committee, 2021) "'If China gets rich, it will think like America.' This mistaken idea was shared by Republicans and Democrats for 20 years, but everyone woke up when their intellectual property was stolen. They used university students in our country for espionage and stole research results. Not to mention trade fraud. They even send ethnic minorities to forced labor and re-educate them to erase their identity." Rubio even brought up the "human rights issue" that China most wants to avoid, and submitted a bill to ban the import of products made by forced labor. China has been sanctioned by the Chinese government and remains banned from entering the country. Lin Jian, Deputy Director of the Spokesperson for the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs: "(Q. If Rubio becomes Secretary of State, will the sanctions, including the travel ban, be lifted?) I have no information to provide." In addition, it has been reported that Michael Waltz, also known as a hardliner against China, has been approached about the White House National Security Advisor. Meanwhile, there is another urgent diplomatic issue. The invasion of Ukraine. US President-elect Trump (June) "We will settle the war between Putin and Zelensky. We will do it before I take office. There are pointless and foolish sacrifices." Trump promised to end the war within two months of "taking office," meaning he will be president. The following proposals have been reported regarding how to do so. The Wall Street Journal (6th) "Three people close to Trump revealed one of the proposals proposed by the Trump transition team. Ukraine would promise not to join NATO for at least 20 years, and in return, the United States would continue to provide large amounts of arms support." There are further conditions. The Wall Street Journal (6th) "All proposals for ending the war would "stabilize" the territory of Ukraine occupied by Russia. There is also a proposal to have both sides agree to establish an 800-mile (about 1,280 km) demilitarized zone." If Russia is allowed to keep the occupied Ukrainian territory, Ukraine would have to accept the loss of about 20% of its territory. Trump has stated that he will not appoint former Secretary of State Pompeo or former UN Ambassador Haley, who both advocated active support for Ukraine, to the new administration. If Ukraine rejects the end of the war proposal, it cannot be denied that support will be cut off. However, this end of the war proposal may not be acceptable to Russia at this time either. Ukraine continues to occupy a small part of Russian territory. If the end of the war proposal requires the same conditions from both sides, it may mean allowing Ukraine to fix Russian territory. In this situation, 50,000 soldiers have been deployed in Kursk Oblast, Russia, and a large-scale offensive is believed to have already begun. It is said that 10,000 of them are North Korean soldiers. The reason why North Korea sent a large number of soldiers at this time may be because Russia feels that "we must recapture Kursk before the end of the war proposal is on the table." ◆We asked Professor Yasushi Watanabe of Keio University, who is knowledgeable about American politics, about Trump's diplomacy in his second term as president. Professor Watanabe said, "During his first term, there were some who were anti-Trump because his views were different from those of the mainstream Republican Party. However, the current Republican Party is filled with yes-men, and can truly be called the Trump Party. I expect that they will further strengthen their "America First" policy than last time." How will "America First" be expressed in foreign affairs? First, there is China. Trump has made the American economy his top priority, and in his first term, he imposed tariffs of up to 25% on Chinese products. During this election, he has said that he will "impose tariffs of 60%." Professor Watanabe said, "Since this is a theme he has been promoting during the election, he cannot lower his fist. He will throw a "high ball." There is a possibility that China will also impose retaliatory tariffs, so the trade war between the United States and China will intensify. The news that Rubio, known for his tough stance against China, has been appointed Secretary of State is a sign of a stronger "America First" policy." Regarding Russia and Ukraine, "Trump may consider a Ukrainian victory to be unrealistic and may even stop aid. Trump will likely seek out ceasefire proposals, such as recognizing the areas of Ukraine under Russian control as Russian territory and not recognizing Ukraine as a member of NATO. However, he is undecided about his course of action at the moment, as he may be concerned by a backlash from Ukraine." (C) CABLE NEWS NETWORK 2024 [TV Asahi News] https://news.tv-asahi.co.jp