Of all the problems facing China – an aging population, a stifling political climate, the decline of economic reform – the most pressing may be environmental degradation and the end of natural resources. Nature and geopolitics can interact in ways that are counterproductive. China seems poised to change the entire international system because it is running out of water. And that could spark conflicts both at home and with its neighbors. Natural resources have always been crucial to economic and global power. In the 19th century, the tiny nation of Britain surged ahead because its rich coal reserves enabled it to launch the Industrial Revolution. And the United States, using its vast arable land, vast oil reserves, and other resources, eventually surpassed Britain to become an economic titan. The same is true of China’s rise. Capitalist reforms, a benign global trading system, and demographics all fueled Beijing’s global economic rise from the late 1970s to the early 2000s. The fact that China was nearly self-sufficient in land, water, and many raw materials, and that its cheap labor allowed it to exploit these resources aggressively, also helped it become a world leader. Yet China’s natural wealth is a thing of the past. As Bloomberg columnist Hal Brands and Michael Beckley argue in their forthcoming book, The Danger Zone, Beijing has exhausted many of its resources. A decade ago, China became the world’s largest importer of agricultural products. Its arable land is shrinking because of degradation and overuse. Rapid development has also made China the world’s largest importer of energy: It buys three-quarters of its oil from abroad, while America has become a net energy exporter. Thousands of rivers have dried up, and industrialization and pollution have made much of the water unusable. By some estimates, 80% to 90% of China’s groundwater and half of its river water is too dirty to drink, and more than half of its groundwater and a quarter of its river water cannot even be used for industry or agriculture. The main problem facing China is how to distribute water. 80% of China’s water supply is in southern China. But this water cannot be used by the people of 12 Chinese provinces, which account for 41% of the total population, 38% of China’s agriculture, 46% of industry, and 50% of electricity production. Eight of these provinces are currently experiencing severe water shortages, while four provinces simply have “not enough” water, and two provinces are largely desert. What’s more, the problem is getting worse: 28,000 rivers in China have dried up in the past 25 years. And China’s appetite for water continues to grow. The problem is compounded by the fact that coal mining is a water-intensive and polluting process, and 85% of China’s coal reserves are located in water-scarce provinces and must be used in conjunction with a large agricultural industry. It is reported that 20% of China’s total water consumption is used for coal mining, processing, or consumption, and nearly 70% is used for agricultural purposes. Rapidly increasing water demand, coupled with a dependence on groundwater from aquifers, has led to a new problem: land subsidence. It is a threat to more than 50 cities in China and is under close government surveillance. Experts estimate that the country loses more than $100 billion annually as a result of water shortages. Water shortages and unsustainable agriculture are leading to desertification of large areas. Drought-related energy shortages have become commonplace across the country. However, China’s resources are not endless either. Yes, Beijing has been the world’s largest food importer for a decade. Farmland in China is degrading. Rapid development has also forced the country to buy three-quarters of its oil from abroad. But the worst situation is with water. China has 20% of the world's population, but only 7% of its fresh water. Entire regions, especially in the north, suffer from worse water shortages than the Middle East. Thousands of years have already disappeared, and the rest is polluted by industrialization.