Worst case scenario: "Over 320,000 deaths" "We can't say where it will happen at this point" Nankai Trough megathrust earthquake: Probability of M8 occurring within a week is "0.5%" TBS NEWS DIG

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Published on Aug 8, 2024
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On the evening of the 8th, a seismic intensity of 6-weak occurred in Hyuga-Nada, Miyazaki Prefecture, and the Japan Meteorological Agency issued a "giant earthquake warning" for the first time. As the possibility of another huge earthquake occurring in conjunction with this earthquake is higher than usual, the agency has asked people living on the Pacific coast from Kanto to Kyushu to "take disaster prevention measures for the next week." What kind of preparations should we make? Street lights shaking violently. At around 4:43 pm on the 8th, an earthquake with a maximum seismic intensity of 6-weak occurred with its epicenter in Hyuga-Nada, Miyazaki Prefecture. The provisional magnitude of the earthquake, which indicates the scale of the earthquake, is 7.1. "It was a big earthquake, and even the TV has fallen over." A seismic intensity of 6-weak was observed in Nichinan City, Miyazaki Prefecture. In Miyazaki City, where a seismic intensity of 5-weak was observed... the lights are shaking violently in the MRT Miyazaki Broadcasting studio. "We have confirmed a big tremor. We are inside the MRT studio." A tsunami warning was also issued temporarily in Miyazaki Prefecture and Kagoshima Prefecture, and a 50-centimeter tsunami was observed at Miyazaki Port. All tsunami warnings were lifted by 10 p.m. Going forward, we must be particularly vigilant about whether this earthquake has increased the possibility of another huge earthquake. Nao Hirata, chairman of the Nankai Trough Earthquake Evaluation Study Group, said, "We have already had a magnitude 7 earthquake, and there have been reports of earthquakes of over 6 on the Japanese seismic scale, causing damage, so please be aware that the possibility of a larger earthquake occurring is higher than usual." Nankai Trough mega-earthquake. If this mega-earthquake occurs, there will be strong shaking over a wide area from the Kanto region to the Kyushu region. In addition, high tsunamis are expected along the Pacific coast from the Kanto region to the Okinawa region. The Nankai Trough is a depression in the ocean floor that stretches along the plate boundary from Suruga Bay to the Hyuga-Nada Sea, where the epicenter of this earthquake occurred. Large earthquakes occur along the Nankai Trough at intervals of approximately 100 to 150 years. It has already been about 80 years since the last large earthquake, and a Nankai Trough mega-earthquake is expected to occur in the near future. According to the Cabinet Office's prediction, if a "Nankai Trough Mega-Earthquake" occurs, there is a possibility that the earthquake will reach a seismic intensity of 7 in parts of Shizuoka Prefecture to Miyazaki Prefecture. In addition, it is expected that a wide area in the surrounding area will experience very strong shaking of seismic intensity 6+ to 6-. Furthermore, it is expected that a tsunami will reach a wide area after the earthquake. A large tsunami exceeding 10 meters is expected in a wide area along the Pacific coast from Kanto to Kyushu. In addition, a tsunami of 3 meters or more may reach areas that do not directly face the Pacific Ocean, such as the Seto Inland Sea and the coast of Tokyo Bay. The worst-case scenario is that 323,000 people will be killed, and 2,386,000 buildings will be destroyed or burned. The damage will be widespread, and the economic losses are estimated to be approximately 215 trillion yen, far exceeding the national budget. Is there a risk that this earthquake will lead to a Nankai Trough earthquake? The Japan Meteorological Agency has announced its first "Nankai Trough Earthquake Emergency Information" and investigated whether the possibility of a mega-earthquake occurring is increasing. Shinya Tsukada, head of the Earthquake and Volcano Technology and Research Division of the Japan Meteorological Agency, said, "As a result of the discussion, we have issued an emergency notice of earthquakes in the Nankai Trough and a warning of huge earthquakes. In the expected focal area of ​​the Nankai Trough earthquake, the possibility of a new large-scale earthquake occurring is considered to be relatively higher than usual. If a large-scale earthquake occurs in the future, it is thought that strong shaking and high tsunamis will occur. The possibility of a new large-scale earthquake occurring is higher than usual, but this does not mean that a large-scale earthquake will definitely occur during a specific period. We ask that you take disaster prevention measures in response to calls from the government and local governments in the future." The evaluation is the second of three levels, "warning of huge earthquakes." The probability of a huge earthquake of magnitude 8 occurring within one week is about 0.5%. Nao Hirata, chairman of the Nankai Trough Earthquake Evaluation Study Group, said, "It is not surprising that an earthquake could occur at any time, but it has become even higher. Seismologically, 'several times higher' is an extremely high probability." Following the announcement by the Japan Meteorological Agency, the Tokaido Shinkansen will operate at a slower speed than usual. The section is from Mishima Station to Mikawa Anjo Station on both the inbound and outbound lines. JR Central expects delays of at least 10 minutes in this section. Trains will continue to operate at reduced speeds for about a week, and there are no plans to suspend service at this time. Nankai Trough Earthquake Evaluation Study Group Chairman Hirata Nao: "(Q. What kind of actions should be taken in which areas in terms of disaster prevention measures?) There is a possibility that it will occur somewhere in the expected Nankai Trough earthquake. In the first place, an earthquake of magnitude 8 to 9 will occur somewhere about 500 km east to west of the Nankai Trough. There is a possibility that the state of the plates is changing, and at this point we cannot say "where," so we need to be careful of the whole area. If the largest earthquake occurs, the seismic intensity in the Kanto region will be 5+ or 5-. About the same as the shaking during the Great East Japan Earthquake. It is also expected that a high tsunami will hit Kyushu to Shikoku, the Kii Peninsula, and the outer Boso Peninsula of the Boso Peninsula. If a tsunami occurs, it is necessary to be careful not only in southwestern Japan. Tokyo's islands may be hit by a high tsunami, so caution is required." What kind of preparations should we make? Inspection and confirmation... (https://newsdig.tbs.co.jp/list/articl... ▼TBS NEWS DIG Official Website https://newsdig.tbs.co.jp/ ▼Please subscribe to our channel! / @tbsnewsdig ▼Information provided by "TBS Insiders" https://www.tbs.co.jp/news_sp/tbs-ins... ▼Video provided by "TBS Scoop Post" https://www.tbs.co.jp/news_sp/toukou.... #News #news #TBS #newsdig

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