What is survivorship bias and how to avoid it?
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How often do you catch yourself thinking that everything was better before? Movies were good, buildings were beautiful, and cars were reliable. Sometimes this is true, but in most cases, alas, such nostalgic memories are a typical survivorship bias. We fall into the trap of this cognitive distortion more often than we think: when we make financial decisions, choose new products, or conclude that this or that strategy led someone to success. A typical example of survivorship bias: the stereotype that higher education is not at all necessary for building a successful business. After all, for example, Bill Gates, Steve Jobs and Mark Zuckerberg did it! They achieved success without having a higher education behind them. And few people will like the fact that all three are a rare category of "survivors", behind whom are hundreds of thousands of stories of people who did not graduate from university and did not succeed. Their success is practically a miracle or, in the language of mathematics, a statistical error. When do we most often encounter this effect? How can we protect ourselves and not become a victim of a cunning trick? And by the way, what do the survivors actually have to do with it? We will explore this in the new episode of Lumos! Lumos on VK vk.com/youarelumos Lumos on RuTube rutube.ru/channel/46519527/
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