The Thing Is Prof. Roman Kuźniar: A New Wave of Refugees Should Not Be Expected

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Published on Dec 10, 2024

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In the latest episode of the podcast "Rzecz w tym", Bogusław Chrabota talks to Professor Roman Kuźniar about the dramatic fall of Bashar Assad's regime. What forces led to this point after years of civil war? Does Syria have a chance to rebuild, or is it facing another wave of chaos? The expert analyzes the roles of Russia, Turkey, and Iran and predicts the consequences for the Middle East and the world. After 13 years of brutal civil war, Bashar Assad's regime fell, leaving Syria at a crossroads. As Professor Roman Kuźniar notes, this change was not the result of a single factor, but of a whole series of events. "It's like with plane crashes - many causes contribute to one event. The situation simply matured, and Assad didn't notice it," Kuźniar comments. Turkey triumphs, Russia loses ground Turkey played a key role in the rebels' success, supporting the opposition from the very beginning of the conflict. "Turkey won, and it won very clearly. Erdogan is the godfather of the rebellion that overthrew Assad,” says the professor. In turn, Russia, which kept Assad in power for years, is now struggling with its own problems, primarily the war in Ukraine. As the expert notes, “Russia and Iran have been saving Assad’s regime for years, but now they do not have the strength to defend it.” Iran on the brink, the Kurds are losing Iran, the second pillar of support for Assad, has also weakened. Internal problems and international pressure have forced Tehran to limit its activities in Syria. “Iran is weakening internally, and its influence in the Middle East is decreasing,” explains Kuźniar. The Kurds will suffer the most from this change. Professor Kuźniar has no illusions: “The Kurds are losing a lot, because Erdogan has been given free hands. There will be no one to stand up for them on the Syrian side.” The future of Syria: A chance for reconstruction or more wars? The situation in Syria raises questions about the possibility of reconstruction and the return of refugees. Will the new government be able to stabilize the country? "If the new government behaves wisely, Syria may become attractive to those who had to flee," says Professor Kuźniar. Global consequences and prospects for the Middle East The fall of Assad has enormous significance for the entire region and the world. As Kuźniar notes: "Israel may be stoking the fire because it is in Netanyahu's interest to have enemies and destabilize." The Middle East is on the threshold of a new order in which the balance of power will change dynamically. "The pace of events in Syria is so incredible that it is difficult to predict whether there will be a war or a government of national salvation." We invite you to listen to the entire podcast. More on: rp.pl Twitter: twitter.com/rzeczpospolita Facebook: facebook.com/dziennikrzeczpospolita Linkedin: linkedin.com/company/rzeczpospolita/

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