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SUBSCRIBE TO CIÊNCIA SEM FIM AND DON'T MISS ANY AMAZING CHAT!!! / ci%c3%aanciasemfim SUNDAY HERE ON SPACE TODAY, EVERYTHING ABOUT THE AEITA YOUNG MEMBER AWARD!!! • WANTED: Young Aerospace Talent... The Milky Way is home to millions of potentially habitable planets – and approximately four of them could harbor evil alien civilizations that would invade Earth if they could, new research posted to the preprint database arXiv(opens in new tab) suggests. The new paper, which has not yet been peer-reviewed, poses a peculiar question: what are the chances that humans could one day come into contact with a hostile alien civilization that is capable of invading our planet? To answer that, the study’s sole author, Alberto Caballero—a PhD student in conflict resolution at the University of Vigo in Spain—started by looking at human history before looking to the stars. “This paper attempts to provide an estimate of the prevalence of hostile extraterrestrial civilizations through an extrapolation of the probability that we, as a human civilization, would attack or invade an inhabited exoplanet,” Caballero wrote in the study. (Caballero is not an astrophysicist, but he did publish a study on the infamous Wow! signal (opens in a new tab)—a potential sign of extraterrestrial life—in the peer-reviewed International Journal of Astrobiology. To arrive at his estimate, Caballero first counted the number of countries that invaded other countries between 1915 and 2022. Assuming that the frequency of human invasions continues to decline over that time at the same rate that invasions have declined over the past 50 years (an average of minus 1.15 percent per year, according to Caballero’s paper), then the human race has a 0.0014 percent chance of invading another planet by the time we potentially become an interstellar, or Type 1, civilization 259 years from now. That may seem like a very small probability—and it is, until you start multiplying it by the millions of potentially habitable planets in the Milky Way. For his final calculation, Caballero turned to a 2012 paper published in the journal Mathematical SETI (opens in a new tab), in which the researchers predicted that as many as 15,785 alien civilizations could theoretically share the galaxy with humans. Caballero concluded that fewer than one of the Type 1 civilizations — 0.22, to be precise — would be hostile toward humans who make contact. However, the number of malicious neighbors increases to 4.42 when we account for civilizations that, like modern humans, are not yet capable of interstellar travel, Caballero told Vice News. SOURCE: https://www.vice.com/en/article/qjbgk... https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/22... #EXTRATERRESTRIAL #SETI #LIFEINTHEUNIVERSEE