▶️An open birthday lecture by Sergey Pereslegin "Russia: the pre-dawn years". ????This lecture is designed as the third in the cycle after the lectures "The anthropotype of the phase transition", "Cosmopolises". ????Sergey Shilov in his lecture on the Crimean War said that after the Battle of Sinop, English newspapers came out with headlines like "Russian Trafalgar". This immediately and extremely raised the stakes in the war: there can only be one Trafalgar. And the Eastern War became not "Crimean" for Great Britain, but "Great". The British needed victory at any cost. Even at the cost of an alliance with France. What is important: Russia did not consider this war to be fateful and waged it, in general, rather lazily. ????The United States was creating – and created – its Empire (the phenomenon of the 1950s), went into space, a huge open world was waiting for the first young computer scientists (Merlin) or the last masters (Susan Kelvin). High birth rate (the "step" of the mid-1950s), high standard of living, comfort, love, music, science fiction... For the first time in history, not a separate social stratum, but an entire nation reached a state when you can afford to love without looking back, do interesting things, think about important things. Yes, it did not last long, and the 1960s turned out to be a "false start", the last "window" before the barrier instability. But this result was not predetermined. Just as it is not predetermined now whether we will have long "Dark Ages" or short ones. It could have turned out differently, and the literature of the 1960s. creates a sense of limitless possibilities - for the nation, the individual and humanity. ????In the 2020s, Russia entered a new stage in its history. Quite catastrophic - COVID, SVO, sanctions, the ever-growing risk of a major war, but also implying great development potential. The "Russian Spring" did not begin in 2014 with the annexation of Crimea, but in 2023, when Ukraine's offensive stopped and it became clear that, despite the strain of all the forces of the West, it was losing the war to Russia, which was "traditionally unprepared for anything". Somehow it suddenly turned out that the economy was stable, technology, of course, was lagging behind - but not always, not everywhere and not as much as everyone thought. With fairly high inflation, the standard of living is growing. And, most importantly, expectations are growing. We really think about intellectual sovereignty, a new cognitive paradigm, the next wave of science fiction, the world-technology "Artificial Intelligence". We can say that in the 2020s Russia has entered its 60s (which suggests that "the revolution of the 50s, including the demographic one, has already passed, but we have not noticed it yet). That is, we have years filled with expectations of positive changes. Pre-dawn. ????This, of course, creates unacceptable risks. Just as there can only be one Trafalgar, English, so there can only be one 60s, American. So for us this is the NWO, for the West it is the Great Eastern War. Only this time Russia takes it seriously. ????In the lecture, I want to consider the 2020s in three logics: ????As an old world pictogram that we drew in 2007 and published in 2008. We have reached the horizon of this forecast, and it is very interesting to understand what we determined correctly, where we went wrong - and why. To a certain extent, we are talking about meta-pictography of the 2020s. ????As a "pre-dawn era", another 60s. Other - not only in the sense of new technologies - AI instead of Space, cyber immortality, augmented reality, etc., but, above all, in the logic of new cognitive and psychotechnical practices, a new ontology and an old transcendence. And also - in relation to the phase crisis, which was just beginning then, and has now entered the terminal stage. ????As a certain set of strategic risks and strategic opportunities. In some ways different, in some ways coinciding with the "American 60s". These risks and these opportunities must be taken into account when forecasting. By the way, I would like to talk about what science fiction will be like at the end of the 2020s, at the very beginning of a new wave. ????Next, it makes sense to offer the next tact of the pictographic forecast: 2030s, 2040s, 2050s. Probably, it is possible to reasonably predict the future until the end of the 6th technological wave and even describe some features of the seventh. ????All three lectures are united by one logic: we are entering the K-phase. Here, in Russia.