Runoff: Polls show slight favoritism for Orsi but in a “competitive” scenario

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En Perspectiva

Published on Nov 14, 2024
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What is happening with voting intentions in the runoff? The question has been causing anxiety in the political system since the very night of the first round, when it was confirmed that Yamandú Orsi and Alvaro Delgado would have to compete head to head for the Presidency of the Republic. In recent days, the first polls have been released. According to the Citizen Perception Factory, if the vote were to take place this Sunday, 46% would vote for Orsi, 43% for Delgado, 7% said they were undecided and 4% are determined to vote blank or spoiled. Opción Consultores, on the other hand, reported that 48.5% would vote for Orsi and 45.1% for Delgado, and 6.3% said they would vote blank or spoiled. This consulting firm refines the undecided by estimating their vote based on other questions it asks respondents. And for Equipos Consultores, Orsi's advantage over Delgado is 45 to 41%, 8% are undecided and 6% said they voted blank or spoiled. All the measurements show a slight favoritism for the Frente Amplio candidate, but they also all indicate that the difference with the ruling party candidate is within the margin of error and that the scenario is competitive. They also agree that small variations in voting intention can have important effects. One more fact: what was happening at this point five years ago, in 2019? The measurements showed a significant favoritism for Luis Lacalle Pou, with distances of 5 and 6 percentage points in the cases of Opción and Equipos, Lacalle Pou ended up winning but with a much smaller difference over Daniel Martínez. What do all these numbers tell you? The Thursday Tertulia with Ana Laura Pérez, Cecilia Eguiluz, Esteban Valenti and Pablo Díaz. Become a member of this channel to enjoy benefits: https://www.youtube.com/EnPerspectiva... EN PERSPECTIVA is broadcast live from Monday to Friday, from 7:00 a.m. to 12:00 p.m. on Radiomundo 1170 AM in Montevideo (Uruguay) and its digital platforms. In addition, the program is broadcast live in HD video on the web: https://www.enperspectiva.uy

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