Overconfidence: Reasoning errors when being too confident, optimistic and positive // ​​Part 3

276,686 views

Duy Thanh Nguyen

Published on Oct 9, 2022
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Have you ever gotten a lower score than expected, lost a contest you were sure you would win, or thought you knew something for sure until you Googled it and realized you were completely wrong? Overconfidence bias is a reasoning error that happens to everyone, of all ages and professions. People with limited vision often take excessive pride in their limited knowledge, thus falling into overconfidence. But did you know that experts are also involved in this fallacy? Moreover, one of the industries that gathers the most overconfident individuals is finance, stock investment, and fund management. This video will not only stop at defining and classifying, but will go one step further and go into variations of overconfidence, thereby providing solutions to limit this fallacy. So, this video won't be easy to watch, but I hope it can reach the majority and bring you different perspectives. This is part 3 of the video series reviewing 2 books Thinking Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, and The Undoing Project by Michael Lewis. 00:00 problem statement 01:27 interpretation 04:38 the unconscious influence of overconfidence --- 05:19 hindsight bias & outcome bias --- 07:23 the illusion of validity --- 10:27 intuitions vs formulas --- 12:24 when should you trust experts? --- 15:42 look outside the box 19:10 overoptimism 20:15 solution Subscriber count: 333,588 If you find the content useful, please consider donating to contribute to the development of the channel. 🎁 MoMo: https://me.momo.vn/duythanhish 🎁 Bank: 222 6868 111 - NGUYEN DUY THANH - MB (Military Bank) http://fb.com/duythanhish http://instagr.am/duythanhish http://duythanhnguyen.com Podcast: More Perspectives

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