■ Host: Anchor Park Seok-won, Anchor Cho Soo-hyun ■ Guest: Hanyang University Adjunct Professor Kim Kwang-seok The text below may differ from the actual broadcast content. For more accurate information, please check the broadcast. When quoting, please indicate [YTN News Wide]. [Anchor] It has been forecasted that Korea's per capita GDP will comfortably surpass Japan this year, following last year. [Anchor] This is what was announced in the IMF's World Economic Outlook report. This year, Korea's economic growth rate is expected to be 2.5%. We will look at various economic indicators, as well as domestic and international economic situations, with Hanyang University Adjunct Professor Kim Kwang-seok. Welcome. [Kim Kwang-seok] Hello. [Anchor] This year's economic outlook for Korea analyzed by the IMF seems a little different from the government's forecast and the Bank of Korea's forecast. [Kim Kwang-seok] There are some differences, but they are largely similar. This year's growth rate forecast is around 2.4% and 2.5%. KDI, the Bank of Korea, and the IMF are at similar levels. The growth rate forecasts for major countries around the world are presented like this. If you look at the growth rate forecasts for Korea, the US is 2.8, China is 4.8, and Korea is at 2.5%, which is a bit high compared to major advanced countries around the world. However, it is a bit low compared to major emerging countries around the world. So, some of you may be wondering what this is, and I will briefly explain. The Korean economy is still struggling, so how can it grow by 2.5%? Let me explain. Last year's economy was very bad. Last year's growth rate was 1.4%. We have had four economic crises since 1980, and if you exclude these four economic crises that were almost negative or zero growth, last year's growth rate in 2023 was 1.4%, the lowest growth rate. So compared to then, the GDP size increased by 2.5%, so it is a growth rate due to the base effect. So, the economy that you feel, the sluggish domestic economy, this is a different 2.5% growth rate, so if you could interpret the meaning of this number, I'll tell you. [Anchor] Let's take a closer look at the current domestic situation. You mentioned the sluggish domestic economy. Recently, the Bank of Korea lowered the interest rate to 0.25%, didn't you? Do you think that the change in monetary policy will affect the change in the domestic market? [Kim Gwang-seok] Of course it will. So, if I briefly explain the basic mechanism of monetary policy in the basic economics, when the interest rate is lowered, new investment from companies will flow in. Since investment flows in, jobs and employment will naturally increase. If employment increases, income levels will naturally improve. Then, what will improve when income increases? Consumption will become more active. Then, when consumption occurs, companies will want to invest more actively. This can be seen as the basic mechanism of monetary policy. So, it can be seen as a rate cut that induces a virtuous cycle in the economy. However, with just a 0.5% interest rate cut, the economy will recover explosively in this situation where domestic demand is sluggish. And I would say that it would be difficult to paint a rosy picture that domestic demand will recover in the short term. Of course, there will be an effect due to the interest rate cut, but it would be difficult to conclude that domestic demand will recover significantly and become active. That is my opinion. [Anchor] And Korea's per capita GDP has surpassed Japan's for two consecutive years. So, it was Korea, Taiwan, and Japan in that order, but how do you interpret this ranking... (omitted) YTN Kim Gwang-seok ([email protected]) ▶ Original article: https://www.ytn.co.kr/_ln/0102_202410... ▶ Report: https://mj.ytn.co.kr/mj/mj_write.php ▣ Subscribe to YTN YouTube channel: http://goo.gl/Ytb5SZ ⓒ YTN Unauthorized reproduction, redistribution, and use of AI data are prohibited