✅Data transcription and summary are posted in the summary▼Please subscribe and like the channel▼👉 / @nikkeicnbc [The stock prices, indexes, etc. displayed on the screen are from the time of broadcast on November 18, 2024. "Outlook for Japanese stocks towards the end of the year: Will the Nikkei average recover to 40,000 yen?" Commentary: Takashi Hiroki, Chief Strategist, Monex Securities Interviewer: Masaki Morita, Nikkei Shimbun Contents 00:00 There are four reasons for the stalemate in the Japanese stock market 1. All the information has been released after the Japanese and US elections and the FOMC 2. Concerns about the negative effects of Trump's policies (tariffs, etc.) 3. Wariness of the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike in December 02:53 Japanese companies' performance hits plateau in April-September financial results ・Nikkei average forecast EPS falls from peak in October ・Level higher than Nikkei average's highest level in July 04:28 Nikkei average forecast PER falls short of year-to-date average・Over 17x at peak in July・Drops to 13x in market crash06:23 Nikkei average range changes due to Bank of Japan interest rate hike・"PER is the inverse of the discount rate" ・"Stock prices are calculated by discounting corporate performance" ・As the discount rate rises, PER falls・Interest rates are one component of the discount rate・"Bank of Japan interest rate hike → rise in discount rate → fall in PER"・What other factors besides interest rates? 08:31 Volatility rises, moving on par with emerging countries・Risks rise as long-term money shuns Japan10:45 Japan's leading major manufacturers in slump? In reality, the top 10 companies with downward revisions in their financial statements totaled 899.2 billion yen (Nissan Motors 300 billion yen, Hino Motors 220 billion yen, Denso 88 billion yen, JFE 75 billion yen, Honda 50 billion yen, SUMCO 41.2 billion yen, Kyocera 41 billion yen, Nippon Steel 30 billion yen, SMC 27 billion yen, Yamato Holdings 27 billion yen) 12:24 Upward revisions predominate, and downward revisions are offset by amounts. Trends in earnings revisions for stocks included in the Nikkei 225 (63 companies, 1.2818 trillion yen, 28% of the total), downward revisions (40 companies, -1.2459 trillion yen, 18% of the total). Banks make upward revisions in the second half of their financial statements. Mitsubishi UFJ alone makes an upward revision of 250 billion yen 14:31 Corporate earnings are not bad, but image leads the way. Exchange rate is moving from a temporary high of the yen to a low. Nikkei 225 EPS returns to 2,500 yen 15:29 Scenario for the Nikkei average to recover to 40,000 yen ・If valued at a PER of 16, it will reach 40,000 yen ・After hitting 40,000 yen, it will be in a state of flux as investors wait and see what happens with the Trump administration [Market outlook] ・Commentator Okazaki Ryosuke • [Okazaki Ryosuke deciphers the Bank of Japan's hesitation] What is the reason for the Nikkei average's weakness? US stock options... ・Kawada Shigenobu (Thank you, American stocks) • [What about investing in US stocks in 25 years? There's nothing to fear if you invest for the long term] Thank you, American stocks... ・Sakagami Ryota (Citigroup Securities) • [Japanese stocks heading for a year-end and New Year rally] Sakagami Ryota: The Nikkei average is likely to rise, and individual... ・Mabuchi Haruyoshi (Bouquet de Fleurette) • [Serious outlook! 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