Harris vs. Trump... Who will win in the 'unpredictable'? / YTN

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YTN

Published on Nov 6, 2024
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■ Host: Anchor Lee Jeong-seop, Anchor Jo Ye-jin ■ Guest: Professor Seok Byeong-hoon, Department of Economics, Ewha Womans University The text below may differ from the actual broadcast content. For more accurate information, please check the broadcast. Please indicate [YTN News START] when quoting. [Anchor] Voting to elect the 47th President of the United States is currently underway. As the unprecedentedly close race continues, the results are drawing even more attention. We will look into the outlook and the impact on our country with Professor Seok Byeong-hoon, Department of Economics, Ewha Womans University. Welcome, professor. Unlike our country, the United States has different voting and counting methods depending on the region. Maybe because the land is so large. Right now, we are in Dixville Notch, New Hampshire. This is a small town, and they recorded a 3:3 tie. [Seok Byeong-hoon] That's right. The US presidential election started at midnight in the US, which is 2:00 PM in our time yesterday. Six people voted in this small town, and the two candidates received three votes each. Although the number of people is small, it is known to be a clear example of how the presidential election is proceeding in a very close race. Since the United States is so large, there are four time zones in one country, and since the voting times and methods are different for each state, it is expected that it will take a considerable amount of time for the results to be announced. Therefore, at 6 PM local time on the 5th, or 8 AM today in Korean time, voting in Indiana and Kentucky will end first, and the counting will begin. [Anchor] We are also showing you the CNN live broadcast on the screen, and the major prediction models, which were called the “tongs,” also announced that the two candidates have almost the same chance of winning in their final predictions. [Seok Byeong-hun] Yes. Originally, there were models that predicted that Trump’s side would be at an advantage. At the end, when he made the Puerto Rican garbage island remark during the election campaign, the votes of Puerto Rican immigrants shifted to the other side, making it a close race. So according to the analysis of ABC News' election data analysis agency FiveThirty, if Harris gets 270 electoral votes and Trump gets 268, and the total electoral college is 538, if she gets more than 270, she will win. So they predicted that Harris will win. Then, the British current affairs media outlet The Economist also has its own prediction model. It predicted that Harris will get 276 electoral votes and Trump will get 262 electoral votes, so Harris will win. On the other hand, the political media outlet The Hill and the election website DecisionDeskHQ predicted that Trump has a 54% chance of winning, 8 percentage points higher than Harris. And recently, many people have been referring to betting sites. In the case of betting sites, there are many that predict favorable results for Trump. However, since many of these betting sites allow you to bet using virtual currency, there is an outlook that many supporters of candidate Trump, who has made promises that are friendly to virtual currency, are placing bets, and therefore the predictions are biased. [Anchor] The screen you are watching right now is a live scene from CNN's election broadcast. In about 6 seconds, the 7 o'clock exit poll will be announced. Let's watch the screen together and talk about it. The results are coming out now. Let's watch the CNN screen together. I don't know which state is the swing state or which exit poll is for a specific state, but let's just watch the screen together... (omitted) ▶ Original article: https://www.ytn.co.kr/_ln/0102_202411... ▶ Report: https://mj.ytn.co.kr/mj/mj_write.php ▣ Subscribe to YTN YouTube channel: http://goo.gl/Ytb5SZ ⓒ YTN Unauthorized reproduction, redistribution, and use of AI data are prohibited.

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