[Commentary] Surpassing the "Bubble Period" for the First Time in 34 Years... Three Questions

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Published on Feb 22, 2024
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On the 22nd, the Nikkei Stock Average broke its all-time high set in 1989 during the bubble period, closing at 39,098.68 yen. I'll be asking three questions. Read the article in this video > https://news.ntv.co.jp/category/econo... ◇ -- First, how do you feel about today's all-time high? This week's stock prices had been stagnant just before hitting their all-time high, so securities traders who are involved in trading said they were relieved. In addition, there were two main reactions from people of the generation who remember the bubble period when the stock price last reached its peak: "Emotion" that "it took more than 30 years to finally come back to this level." The other was "anxiety" that "the stock price this time will also suddenly fall." I also talked to my parents, who were in their 20s during the bubble period, and they said, "Many people suffered greatly when the bubble collapsed, and I think the generation that experienced the bubble has something like a yellow light in their minds that stock prices will fall someday." --The second question is "Differences between the bubble period and the current economy." How is the current rise in stock prices different from the bubble period? When I interviewed economists and other market participants, they said that "During the bubble period, stock prices rose above the capabilities of Japanese companies, but now the stock prices are somewhat grounded, backed by the increase in profits and good business outlooks of Japanese companies." Even when looking at indicators that determine whether stock prices are too high compared to the capabilities of companies, it is confirmed that the current stock prices are roughly in line with the capabilities of Japanese companies. However, as I have said before on the program, on the other hand, we still don't really feel that our lives are getting better. It is necessary for companies to return the profits they have earned through "wage increases." With the spring labor offensive that has just begun, a survey has shown that 60% of companies are currently considering wage increases, so the key point is whether they can achieve wage increases that exceed last year's. --And the third question. Will stock prices continue to rise in the future? The key point going forward will be the "exchange rate." Due to the influence of the Bank of Japan's policy of keeping interest rates low, the yen is currently continuing to weaken. That's why overseas investors are buying Japanese stocks because they think they're a bargain. So, if the yen continues to appreciate in the future, this "sense of undervaluation" will fade and the buying momentum for Japanese stocks may also weaken. So, what are the "risks" that cause the yen to appreciate? Several economists cite the victory of former President Trump in the US presidential election this fall as one of the risks. Market participants have pointed out that "Trump's protectionist policies, which advocate America First, and his tendency to favor a weak dollar are both factors that lead to a strong yen and falling stock prices," and that "If the market becomes unstable due to intensifying trade friction between the US and China under the Trump administration, it could put a damper on the strong performance of Japanese stocks." The future direction of stock prices will also be influenced by such international situations. (From "news every." broadcast on February 22, 2024) 📌Subscribe here / @ntv_news ◇Nippon Television News Department's SNS X https://x.com/news24ntv TikTok / ntv.news Facebook / ntvnews24 Instagram / ntv_news24 ◇【Latest news LIVE broadcast】NTV NEWS NNN HP https://news.ntv.co.jp #NikkeiStockAverage #AllTimeHigh #StockPrice #NTV #newsevery #News

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