#56 INTEREST RATES on the rise, FISCAL RISK and INDUSTRY with MARCOS MENDES and JORGE ARBACHE Dois
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The depreciation of the real against the dollar and the effects of the climate are expected to continue to negatively impact inflation at the end of the year and in early 2025. With inflation expectations falling short of the target, the Central Bank has begun a cycle of raising the Selic rate. According to analysts consulted by Estadão/Broadcast, this prolonged tightening of interest rates is also weighed down by concerns about the direction of Brazil's fiscal policy. How is the current situation affecting the country's industrial sector? Will higher interest rates inhibit investment plans by large companies? On the other hand, could the devalued real help boost exports? Should the government implement public policies aimed at the sector to try to alleviate the problem? To discuss these issues, the guests on this week's episode of Dois Pontos are economist Marcos Mendes, who holds a PhD in Economics from USP and is an associate researcher at Insper, and Jorge Arbache, a professor at the University of Brasília, former vice president of the private sector at the Development Bank of Latin America and the Caribbean, and chief economist at the Ministry of Planning during the Michel Temer administration. The episode is hosted by Estadão columnist Roseann Kennedy, with the participation of special reporter and Estadão columnist in Brasília, Alvaro Gribel. Produced by Carla Menezes Everton Oliveira Edited by Júlia Pereira Recorded at Agência Voz -- Subscribe for R$1.90/month and have unlimited access to Estadão content. Access: http://bit.ly/ofertaestadao Chapters: 0:00 - Rising interest rates, fiscal risk, and industry 2:30 - Is there a risk that the crisis will go beyond the financial environment and affect real life? 6:28 - What will happen to the industrial sector? 15:03 - How should we deal with these issues? 18:24 - What generates the most fear among domestic and foreign investors? 23:09 - Tax reform 29:42 - Is the industrial sector more exposed? 50:20 - How does Trump's return to power influence Brazil's investments? 59:36 - Degree of macro imbalance
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