3 DO MY FORECASTS ABOUT THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY COME TRUE? LECTURE 3

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Some of my respected colleagues began to reproach me for being an alarmist and for belonging to that category of alarmists (Russoskeptics) who "are in clear opposition to the regime and have long predicted a recession and crisis for the Russian economy. While correctly pointing out the internal flaws of the domestic economic system, they have nevertheless repeatedly underestimated its stability and its ability to resist sanctions and adapt to new conditions." Therefore, "we must treat the forecasts of such alarmists with some skepticism." And as an example of an unfulfilled forecast by people like me, "alarmist-Russoskeptics," my colleagues cite my article in the Moscow Times, published on October 4, 2023 - "Russian Budget 2024: Stagflation, Not Fabulous Wealth." I had already forgotten about it, but thanks to Professor Inozemtsev, who mentioned it, I remembered it, found its text, reread it and decided to conduct a kind of “checking” of the forecasts formulated in it.

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